Weekly Summary of Raw Materials Market

After the National Day holiday, the raw material market saw mixed performance across various commodities. Iron ore prices generally rose; coke prices rose, but a second round of price increases was unlikely to materialize; the coking coal market remained generally stable; prices of most ferroalloys remained stable with some declines, while ferromolybdenum alloy prices saw some increases. During this period, the price fluctuations of the major commodities were as follows:

Imported iron ore prices generally rose

Imported iron ore prices generally rose. News that China had suspended BHP Billiton iron ore imports during the National Day holiday sparked widespread market concern. Subsequently, news broke that BHP Billiton had accepted RMB settlement requests for some iron ore trades from Chinese customers. Traders, with low market expectations, were generally more willing to ship. Regarding steel procurement, some steelmakers with low inventories have already made small purchases, while those with high inventories are generally waiting for favorable prices in the near future. Overall, there is a certain demand for replenishment. Environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan have intensified, with some steelmakers limiting sintering machine capacity by 40% to 50%, which has had a certain impact on iron ore demand. Iron ore prices are expected to fall in the near term, but the extent of the decline will be limited given the continued purchasing demand from steelmakers. Metallurgical coke prices have risen overall. Metallurgical coke prices have risen across the board. Rammed coke prices have increased by 50 to 55 yuan/ton, and top-loaded coke prices have increased by 70 to 75 yuan/ton. Coke companies have released new October metallurgical coke prices, with top-loaded dry-quenched coke prices reduced by 35 yuan/ton, rammed dry-quenched coke prices by 55 yuan/ton, and wet-quenched coke prices by 50 yuan/ton. Metallurgical coke prices remained stable in early October, with a 50 yuan/ton increase in mid-October. Most coke companies held a joint market analysis meeting and reached a consensus: reduce coal inventories, reduce or cease purchases of high-priced coal, and encourage loss-making companies to reduce production and sales to jointly address the industry's challenging times. Further market analysis meetings will be held in the near future based on market developments. Due to the shift in cautious market sentiment, the planned second round of metallurgical coke price increases has been temporarily shelved. The domestic metallurgical coke market is expected to remain relatively stable in the near future. Coking coal prices remained largely stable.

Last week, coking coal prices remained largely stable, with long-term contract prices rising by 30 to 70 yuan/ton. Online auction prices saw mixed results. Low-sulfur coking coal prices in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi, ranged from 1,530 to 1,540 yuan/ton. Gas coal prices in Shaanxi ranged from 900 to 960 yuan/ton. Online auction activity improved compared to the week before the National Day holiday, with a 92% overall sell-through rate. Coal mines are shipping normally, and the market is expected to remain stable in the near term. Overall, the coking coal market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term.

Prices of most ferroalloy varieties remained stable with some declines.

With the exception of ferromolybdenum, prices of most ferroalloy varieties remained stable with some declines. Ferrosilicon prices continued their downward trend. After the National Day holiday, more ferrosilicon companies resumed production. In the second week of October, sample ferrosilicon companies produced 89,900 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from pre-holiday levels. Prices have fallen below the cost level for most companies, and factory maintenance is expected to increase in mid-to-late October. Currently, the overall operating rate of the ferrosilicon market is at a high level compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is sluggish, and market sentiment for price support is weak. The ferrosilicon market is expected to remain stable but slightly weak in the near term. Silomanganese prices are stable with a slight decline. The new round of silicomanganese tenders from some southern steelmakers are priced between 5,750 and 5,860 yuan/ton. Most northern producers are holding off on quoting prices, showing a strong reluctance to sell at low prices. A few are offering prices between 5,600 and 5,700 yuan/ton. Trading and investment performance in the southern market is mediocre. Due to cost pressures, mills are reluctant to ship at low prices. Coupled with weaker-than-expected downstream demand, market confidence is weak. The silicomanganese market is expected to remain stable but slightly weak in the near term.

High-carbon ferrochrome prices fell slightly by 50 to 100 yuan/50 metric tons, with the market low trading price at 8,400 yuan/50 metric tons. Overall, inquiries are low. Raw material chromium ore prices are stable, but chemical coke prices have risen, leading to a slight increase in high-carbon ferrochrome production costs. Currently, long-term contract traders are actively shipping. However, some downstream foundries have suspended production due to the holiday, and demand has not significantly recovered. The high-carbon ferrochrome market is expected to remain stable but slightly weak in the near term.

Vanadium alloy prices fell by 2,000 yuan/ton, while ferrovanadium prices remained stable. The price of 98-sheet vanadium remained stable. Bulk shipping activity has increased, with prices slightly loosening. The overall trading and investment sentiment is generally average. Smelters are offering relatively firm prices due to cost pressures, but downstream steel companies are not actively purchasing, shifting the transaction price center of gravity of vanadium alloys downward. The vanadium alloy market is expected to remain stable but slightly weak in the near term. Regarding molybdenum alloys, the price of 60% ferromolybdenum has risen. The price of 45%-47% grade molybdenum concentrate has fallen slightly. Despite the slight decline in molybdenum concentrate prices, ferromolybdenum smelters are experiencing improved losses, but they remain in the red. Ferromolybdenum prices in the bulk market remain firm and rising. Few downstream steel companies are purchasing ferromolybdenum. The ferromolybdenum market is expected to remain stable with slight fluctuations in the near term.